Economics : Real oil prices

| Wednesday, July 02, 2008 || Posted by - zidit
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The real price of oil. Despite their substantial increase since 2003, the price of oil in 2004 was 45% lower than they were in 1981. In constant 2000 dollars, oil prices an average of $ 61.75/bbl in 1981, but they only hit $ 35/bbl in 2004. The average real oil prices in 2005 was slightly higher than the average 2004, 2005, but the figure was more than 40% lower than the average 1981. If we include the effect of the devaluation of the dollar, when measuring the purchasing power of OPEC oil exports. we find that real oil prices fell further. In fact, the 2005 record oil prices would be similar rates that prevailed in 1983, when oil prices fell by almost 30% from their peak of 1981.

The per capita income. Current per capita income in Saudi Arabia, for example, much less a record level achieved in the early 1980s. This is slightly higher than half what it was in 1981. Moreover, despite record oil prices, current per capita income in Saudi Arabia nor that of 1972, the year before the first boom.

The main cause of the recent decline in real per capita income is a significant increase in the population of member countries of OPEC, which have some of the world's highest birth rate. This provision applies not only to Saudi Arabia, but also for all members of OPEC. Between 1980 and 2004, real per capita income declined by about 50% in the UAE, 35% in Kuwait, 49% in Libya, 29% in Qatar, and 67% in Oman. These figures show that recent record oil prices have not led to "second" boom in oil-producing countries.

Dr. AF Alhajji is an associate professor of economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern University in Ada, Ohio. In the Northern Ohio, he holds the George W. Patton Department of Economics, specializing in international economy and energy. Previously, he was awarded, Visiting Professor of Economics at the Colorado School of mines. He is a regular contribution to this column.

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